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OVERVIEW- Southern Georgian Bay Region
RECORD Q1 VOLUME AND AVERAGE PRICES, WITH NEW LISTINGS AND EXPIREDS UP
- RECORD YEAR-TO-DATE SALES VOLUME OF $229,486,902 Up 19% from 2019’s $193,543,586, with units of 385 up 8% from 2019’s 356. New listings of 747 up 9%, with the sales/listings ratio of 52% equal to last year.
- MARCH SALES VOLUME OF $83,132,186 Down .1% from last March’s $83,218,400. Units of 144 down 6% from last year’s 154. New listings of 303 were up 3% from a year ago, while the sales/listing ratio of 48% was down 4%.
- RECORD YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF $596,070 Up 10% from the $543,662 of one year ago. Average days-on-market of 56 is down 5 days.
- THE DEMAND FOR LISTINGS IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN THE SUPPLY March unit sales were the least since 2014 and down 40% from 2017’s high. Volume was the fourth-best ever, mainly due to the record average price. New listings and expired listings were up 2% and 36% respectively from last March. Average sale times were down 7 days. The sales/listings ratio was 48%: a buyers’ market.
THE MARKET IN DETAIL
As Graph 3 shows, 2020 had an exceptional first two months, with volume up 32% from 2019 and 17% from 2017’s previous record. The first half of March was also record-breaking, up 9% from 2017’s prior high.
THE ARRIVAL OF COVID 19
March became a tale of two markets, with second-half volume down 16% from last year and down 47% from 2017. As Graph 4 shows, March’s second-half units followed the same pattern, down 32% from last year and 58% from 2017’s high. On a brighter note, March’s second-half, average sale price was up 24% from the first half, and March’s overall average price was up 7% from last March. Time will tell what prices do in the coming months.
THE EFFECT OF COVID 19 ON REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
At this point we can only hypothesize what the overall impact that the lock down will have on our real estate market. As the statistics are gathered over the coming weeks we will see how the lack of real estate activity is affecting prices and sales volumes but for now it is too early to tell. What we do know is that there has been relatively few new listings since mid-March and overall showing activity has ground to a stand still with a 75% decline Ontario wide (see the graph below). We expect activity to slow to a crawl in our market in April and for as long as social distancing and lock-down measures are in place. We expect property values to come under increasing downward pressure the longer restrictions persist and the deeper the recession gets. Super thin activity also makes our market prone to erratic price moves.
MICRO-MARKET SNAP SHOT
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
Q1 was another record breaking quarter for the Blue Mountains in terms of unit sales with 87 sale YTD (13% increase over 2019). The increase in unit sales was at least partially driven by an increase in listing supply where we saw a 20% increase. With more inventory available for buyers we saw the market begin to favour buyers for the first time in many months. Prices remained steady with a slight increase in average price to $741,390 (up 1.6%).
MUNICIPALITY OF MEAFORD
Meaford followed its historic trend of dancing to its own drummer with respect to statistical performance. Q1 in Meaford showed an impressive gain of 23% in average price with the average price of a single family home eclipsing $525,000. Meaford, unlike other surrounding towns, only experienced a very slight increase in listing supply in Q1 and with the demand for homes continuing outpace homes available for sale prices have continued to trend upwards. With only 3.4 months of inventory (compared to 5.4 months of inventory in Blue Mountains to give some context) available for sale Meaford continues to favour Sellers.
OTHER GREAT RESOURCES:
Phil Soper, CEO Royal LePAGE Canada- Real Estate Predictions Post Covid-19
- Royal Bank of Canada Real Estate Predictions
- Royal LePage Locations North- Q1 Comprehensive Market Report Download